Podcast NYC: Climbing The Digital Mountain
Well, we're not in Kansas anymore. It's obvious that the word is out on podcasting. USA Today, CNN and many other mainstream media outlets have picked up on this growing trend. Hell, I've picked up on this growing trend and I love it! But where is it all going? I wanted to share some thoughts on the future of podcasting.
If you've read my earlier posts you'll know that I think that we are at the beginning of a revolutionary time in the distribution of digital media. Some important gaps are being bridged at this very moment. The technical ability to bridge these gaps has existed for several years. The problem has been building the desire to a critical mass. I liken the situation to climbers standing at the base of a dangerous mountain. Many climbers may pass the mountain by in favor of simpler and safer exploits. Eventually, some adventurous souls decide to go on their wits and experience. They start climbing. Other potential climbers take heart from the trail blazers and they follow on the path up the mountain, figuring out new ways to go higher. Dave Winer was one of those people who started the climb early. His work on payloads for RSS broke new ground on how media could be made available over the internet. Then Adam Curry's ipodder initiative closed the circle. They were among the early climbers.
Today more people see the possibility of broadcasting the availability of content while allowing people to catch that content at a time of their choosing. The result has been an incredible influx of people who are now recording their content, uploading to the internet and taking measures to broadcast the availability of their content via RSS feeds. Just as many people are downloading programs like doppler radio and ipodder in order to catch the content that's being broadcast. Hence, supply and demand have been connected via technology.
This has certainly happened before via the internet. Think about eBay. Supply for any number of things is brought together with demand via the eBay website. The technology to do this existed prior to eBay's existence, but the folks who founded eBay figured out a way to make the experience more user friendly. They knew that just bringing supply and demand together wasn't enough. They introduced the feedback concept so that people would have confidence in their transactions. They've continued to add features like integrated billing via PayPal. They've added more advanced features for people to track certain items. In short, eBay has done all that they can to make the experience as simple as possible for the average computer user.
If podcasting is to continue to flourish, the same actions will need to be taken. The existence of a process does not mean that the masses will adopt that process. Right now, the people who are driving the bus are still the early adopters with advanced technical knowledge and certainly more active curiosity. So while many have started to climb the mountain, there are still many more people yet to join in. I believe that those people will join in. In the last week and a half a variety of services and tools have popped up. These services will make broadcasting content over the internet that much easier and lead to more participation.
So here are my predictions. First, major media companies will fight internet syndication (podcasting) tooth and nail. They won't fight it actively. They'll do it passively via restrictive protocols, proprietary distribution techniques and generally ignoring the technology used in podcasting with respect to the media they own. They'll also fight by trying to buy off some of the podcasting "stars" to switch to their old mediums of distribution. Second, the content creators will continue to create and they'll turn to internet syndication in an effort to get their content seen and heard. Third, tech savvy people will continue (on their own) to create new tools to distribute and "catch" content via internet syndication. As a result, the internet will become the widest available distribution network for independent media. And eventually, though I'm not sure when, we'll be pulling all sorts of media, independent and commercially produced, through the internet pipe.
Once that happens, the digital mountain will have been scaled. I do not know whether the view from the top will be good or not. I know that there will always be new mountains to climb. And I suggest enjoying the climb to the top of this one while it lasts.
If you've read my earlier posts you'll know that I think that we are at the beginning of a revolutionary time in the distribution of digital media. Some important gaps are being bridged at this very moment. The technical ability to bridge these gaps has existed for several years. The problem has been building the desire to a critical mass. I liken the situation to climbers standing at the base of a dangerous mountain. Many climbers may pass the mountain by in favor of simpler and safer exploits. Eventually, some adventurous souls decide to go on their wits and experience. They start climbing. Other potential climbers take heart from the trail blazers and they follow on the path up the mountain, figuring out new ways to go higher. Dave Winer was one of those people who started the climb early. His work on payloads for RSS broke new ground on how media could be made available over the internet. Then Adam Curry's ipodder initiative closed the circle. They were among the early climbers.
Today more people see the possibility of broadcasting the availability of content while allowing people to catch that content at a time of their choosing. The result has been an incredible influx of people who are now recording their content, uploading to the internet and taking measures to broadcast the availability of their content via RSS feeds. Just as many people are downloading programs like doppler radio and ipodder in order to catch the content that's being broadcast. Hence, supply and demand have been connected via technology.
This has certainly happened before via the internet. Think about eBay. Supply for any number of things is brought together with demand via the eBay website. The technology to do this existed prior to eBay's existence, but the folks who founded eBay figured out a way to make the experience more user friendly. They knew that just bringing supply and demand together wasn't enough. They introduced the feedback concept so that people would have confidence in their transactions. They've continued to add features like integrated billing via PayPal. They've added more advanced features for people to track certain items. In short, eBay has done all that they can to make the experience as simple as possible for the average computer user.
If podcasting is to continue to flourish, the same actions will need to be taken. The existence of a process does not mean that the masses will adopt that process. Right now, the people who are driving the bus are still the early adopters with advanced technical knowledge and certainly more active curiosity. So while many have started to climb the mountain, there are still many more people yet to join in. I believe that those people will join in. In the last week and a half a variety of services and tools have popped up. These services will make broadcasting content over the internet that much easier and lead to more participation.
So here are my predictions. First, major media companies will fight internet syndication (podcasting) tooth and nail. They won't fight it actively. They'll do it passively via restrictive protocols, proprietary distribution techniques and generally ignoring the technology used in podcasting with respect to the media they own. They'll also fight by trying to buy off some of the podcasting "stars" to switch to their old mediums of distribution. Second, the content creators will continue to create and they'll turn to internet syndication in an effort to get their content seen and heard. Third, tech savvy people will continue (on their own) to create new tools to distribute and "catch" content via internet syndication. As a result, the internet will become the widest available distribution network for independent media. And eventually, though I'm not sure when, we'll be pulling all sorts of media, independent and commercially produced, through the internet pipe.
Once that happens, the digital mountain will have been scaled. I do not know whether the view from the top will be good or not. I know that there will always be new mountains to climb. And I suggest enjoying the climb to the top of this one while it lasts.
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